WATER PEACE AT HOME WATER PEACE IN THE WORLD

As Iranian Water Crisis Continues, Fresh Protests Spell Uncertainty for Political Stability

11 JULY 2018

Background As previous Strategic Weekly Analyses have documented, Iran currently faces a significant water crisis, largely of its own making. On the night of 30 June/1 July, Iran was once again gripped by protests over water scarcity, this time in the province of Khuzestan, in the south-west of the country. While the vast majority of Iran is drought-stricken, the issue is especially acute in Khuzestan, where locals complain that their taps produce muddy, salty water and 230 people were recently poisoned by untreated tap water. Comment The first decade of the twenty-first century saw the greatest drought in the Middle East for at least 900 years. It contributed in no small part to regional unrest and was a catalyst for the Syrian Civil War. Although water scarcity as a driver of conflict is less publicised in the media than other issues, it has exacerbated multiple conflicts in the region. In Syria, seven years of multi-seasonal drought led to a decrease in agricultural output and an increase in the price of grain. In this period,  1.5 million agricultural workers were forced to migrate to urban areas in search of work, helping stoke a conflict that continues today. Meanwhile, in Yemen, rapid population growth and unsustainable irrigationpractices put a strain on water resources, which were already alarmingly scarce. This, in turn, has sparked numerous clashes, with estimates suggesting that 70 to 80 per cent of violent conflicts in rural Yemen are about water. While the suggestion that competition for water and resources causes conflicts is controversial, the evidence suggests that water scarcity at least contributes to the political and social tensions that drive conflicts. That fact is not lost on Tehran, which has dealt with an increased number of protests and riots in recent months. The protests included a series of demonstrations in December and January over price increases, corruption and a lack of access to clean water, in which 25 people were killed and 3,700 arrested. More demonstrations have erupted in Khuzestan since 20 June, over an ongoing lack of clean, potable drinking water in much of the region. Then fresh demonstrations struck Tehran’s Grand Bazaar on 25 June, in which traders demonstrated against the economic hardships they now face. The economy is already under pressure due to a sharp decline in the value of the rial, following renewed US sanctions and the collapse of the Iran nuclear deal. Iran’s economic woes seem sure to continue, with sanctions on gold, coal, steel, oil and currency scheduled for later this year. Unfortunately for Iran, the coming economic squeeze will have a direct impact on its ability to manage its water crisis. Economic insecurity tends to cause short-term approaches to water management and stakeholders responsible for Iran’s water have previously favoured strategies that have tried to aggressively invigorate the economy in the short-term. Unfortunately, this approach has created long-term problems for the environment, especially water sources. Agriculture, in particular, has had a vast impact on Iran’s now-depleted groundwater reserves. As the economy continues to decline and costs increase, Iranian farmers will struggle to invest in schemes that encourage efficient water use. That is likely to cause further water wastage and, ultimately, a worsening of the current water crisis. In the worst case, that scenario risks creating social upheaval that could have similar consequences to those in Syria or Yemen. Iran finds itself in a precarious situation with domestic environmental problems and international economic pressures creating unrest that could spell disaster for some members of the Iranian elite, not least President Hassan Rouhani. Hardliners have seized upon the spate of protests to call for the resignation of his government, intensifying an ongoing power struggle that threatens to complicate Iran’s already precarious stability.
Any opinions or views expressed in this paper are those of the individual author, unless stated to be those of Future Directions International.
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