Effects of the Conflict on Syrian Agriculture

Effects of the Conflict on Syrian Agriculture: A Pilot Study A pilot study, conducted jointly by the World Bank and the European Space Agency EO4SD for this report, used Satellite Earth Observation to assess the impact of the conflict on agricultural production in Syria. The study mapped temporal and spatial changes in land cover and agricultural productivity, by using a vegetation index, which is a measure of the greenness of vegetation. Three areas and respective irrigation schemes in Syria, located near Dara’a, Aleppo, and Ar Raqqah, were compared with similar schemes in nearby zones in Turkey and Jordan. The status of these agricultural areas is assessed and compared between 2011 (pre-conflict) and 2016 at field level (10x10 meter to 30x30 meter resolution). (See maps B2.3.1 and B2.3.2.) The main conclusion is that the conflict has affected agricultural output through land utilization, cropping intensity, and crop yields. Cultivated land has decreased by about 50 percent in the Syrian Al Eis irrigation scheme; formerly wet (potentially irrigated) areas in the dry season diminished by 36 percent; and productivity has declined by 36 percent in winter and 47 percent in summer. In Ar Raqqah, productivity also decreased in spring and summer, by on average 15 percent. In Al Hassakeh, productivity decreased by 15 percent in summer but increased by 60 percent in spring. The results include targeting criteria and an agricultural activity analysis, and can assist in planning for reestablishing agriculture input supply chains. Agricultural production capacity is influenced by three variables: land utilization (extent of cultivated areas), cropping intensity (number of crop cycles in a year), and crop yields (productivity). Earth observation can provide information to support all three variables. However, in an Earth observation context, the word productivity is a combined measure of all three effects, derived by a vegetation index, here the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index. The extent of cultivated areas significantly decreased in the Al Eis irrigation scheme (45,672 hectares) between 2011 and 2016. Although pre-conflict there were 34,327 hectares under cultivation, less than half of the area was still in use in 2016 (12,308 hectares). A detailed classification of the cultivated area in Al Eis shows that half of the El Ais area was fallow or abandoned in 2016, compared with the cultivated area extent in 2011. The detailed classification of the cultivated area in Al Eis shows that in 2016 the remaining active cultivations were mainly winter crops (11.5 percent), followed by spring crops (10.9 percent). Summer crops, which typically need irrigation, are only found in 3.9 percent of the Al Eis area. Two cropping cycles are rarely found in 2016. Earth observation showed that vegetation activity was not present or in general significantly lower in the Syrian irrigated area compared with an intact irrigation scheme in Turkey in 2016. Furthermore, the crop cycle and in particular the start of the season was very similar to the surrounding natural, rainfed vegetation in the Syrian Al Eis irrigated area, indicating a breakdown of the irrigation infrastructure.   Source : THE TOLL OF WAR THE ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL CONSEQUENCES OF THE CONFLICT IN SYRIA  World Bank Report 2017