National Vulnerability in Wheat's Future: GIS-based Crop Climate Suitability Analysis by CHELSA Climate dataset for Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in Turkey

Fulya Aydin-Kandemir1
1 Antalya Metropolitan Municipality Climate Change and Zero Waste Department, Antalya, Turkey
1Hydropolitics Association, 06680 Kavaklıdere/Ankara, Turkey
E-mail: fulya.aydin.kandemir@hpacenter.org ORCID NO: 0000-0001-5101-6406
Wheat is critical to Turkey's national agricultural production. While the mechanisms by which climate change affects the wheat's spatial suitability, less is known about high-quality climate datasets for climate change-based estimation studies. Using the high-resolution climate dataset CHELSA and two Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP126 and SSP370), I sought insights into the future temperature and precipitation projections' impact on the wheat spatial suitability. I observed that the future spatial suitability of wheat is decreasing by more than 40% for all wheat areas (for rainfed/irrigated croplands and 2010-based wheat harvested areas). Moreover, more than 10% of the areas have low suitability within the areas with availability.
In contrast, in low emission (SSP126) and high emission scenarios (SSP370), the most significant difference is seen in the "best suitability" class. These data demonstrate that the suitability of wheat in 2050 (2041–2070 period) will decrease throughout Turkey while suitable areas will be confined to very narrow areas. Due to growing concerns about wheat and food security, future research is urgently needed. Consequently, it is also seen that climate datasets and Crop Climate Suitability Models (CCSM) play an essential role in the projections for crop spatial suitability.
Keywords: climate change, wheat, spatial suitability, CHELSA, climate dataset, Shared Socio-economic Pathways, Geographic Information Systems, Crop Climate Suitability Modelling, vulnerability, Turkey

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