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ISIS  has turned the “Middle East  Hydro-Politics” upside down

ISIS  has turned the “Middle East  Hydro-Politics” upside down

Dursun Yıldız1

1Hydropolitics Academy Association, Ankara-Turkey

E-mail address: dyildiz@hidropolitikakademi.org

 

ABSTRACT

The “Arab Spring”—a wave of pro-democracy demonstrations that began in Tunisia in late 2010 and swept across Libya and Egypt—finally reached Syria in early March 2011  The unrest resulted from a combination of socio-economic and political problems that had been building for years and that affects especially Syria’s largely rural population. One of the things that preceded the failure of the nation-state of Syria and the rise of ISIS has been considered the effect of climate change and the mega-drought that affected that region.

However, four years after the conflict began, it has degenerated into a civil war with more than 200,000 deaths and about 4 million registered refugees. And it has put Syria at the center of nasty geopolitical struggles.In most evaluations of the Syrian civil war a future, the most neglected analysis is: How water resources will affect the ongoing civil war and how changing situation will affect hydro politics relations between countries after the war.

A far more sustained and thoughtful consideration of Syria’s future, and how the country will be governed democratically, is needed. There are at least seven scenarios for the future of the country from Assad victory to, stalemate, country breaks up , regional conflict, chaos etc. In details, autonomy in some regions. confederal, federal, independent all or a bicameral parliament and highly decentralized provincial structures, whatsoever the  type of  New Syrian system will be ,  there will be transboundary water issues that are more conflicted and somehow different than it was before.

ISIS has been  the most important and powerful actor in the civil war. It has played a very important role to change the region till now. If current political system of the Syria is changed or fragmented after the civil war that is likely to be , we can  easily say that ISIS  has turned the “Middle East  Hydro Politics” upside down. Even if it is not well known right now ,this change will affect future of the regional stability with climate change effects in the near future.

Keywords: ISIS, Hydro-politics, Orontes, Alawite State, New Syria, New Middle East Map,

  1. INTRODUCTION

The Civil War in Syria has become one of the most bloody and geopolitically important events to come out of the Arab Spring. While the war has become in many ways a sectarian Shi’a-Sunni battle, in Syria there is a third religious group that has played a pivotal role in the history of that country: the Alawites.

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