The Global Risks Report
- 19.01.2019
- Author:admin
- 484
Executive Summary
Is the world sleepwalking into a
crisis? Global risks are intensifying
but the collective will to tackle them
appears to be lacking. Instead,
divisions are hardening. The world’s
move into a new phase of strongly
state-centred politics, noted in
last year’s Global Risks Report,
continued throughout 2018. The
idea of “taking back control”—
whether domestically from political
rivals or externally from multilateral
or supranational organizations—
resonates across many countries
and many issues. The energy now
expended on consolidating or
recovering national control risks
weakening collective responses to
emerging global challenges. We are
drifting deeper into global problems
from which we will struggle to
extricate ourselves.
During 2018, macroeconomic
risks moved into sharper focus.
Financial market volatility increased
and the headwinds facing the global
economy intensified. The rate of
global growth appears to have
peaked: the latest International
Monetary Fund (IMF) forecasts point
to a gradual slowdown over the
next few years.1 This is mainly the
result of developments in advanced
economies, but projections of a
slowdown in China—from 6.6%
growth in 2018 to 6.2% this year
and 5.8% by 2022—are a source of
concern. So too is the global debt
burden, which is significantly higher
than before the global financial
crisis, at around 225% of GDP.
In addition, a tightening of global
financial conditions has placed
particular strain on countries that
built up dollar-denominated liabilities
while interest rates were low.
Geopolitical and geo-economic
tensions are rising among the
world’s major powers. These
tensions represent the most urgent
global risks at present. The world is
evolving into a period of divergence
following a period of globalization
that profoundly altered the global
political economy. Reconfiguring
the relations of deeply integrated
countries is fraught with potential
risks, and trade and investment
relations among many of the world’s
powers were difficult during 2018.
Against this backdrop, it is likely
to become more difficult to make
collective progress on other global
challenges—from protecting the
environment to responding to the
ethical challenges of the Fourth
Industrial Revolution. Deepening
fissures in the international system
suggest that systemic risks may
be building. If another global crisis
were to hit, would the necessary
levels of cooperation and support
be forthcoming? Probably, but the
tension between the globalization of
the world economy and the growing
nationalism of world politics is a
deepening risk.
Environmental risks continue
to dominate the results of our
annual Global Risks Perception
Survey (GRPS). This year, they
accounted for three of the top
five risks by likelihood and four by
impact. Extreme weather was the
risk of greatest concern, but our
survey respondents are increasingly
worried about environmental
policy failure: having fallen in the
rankings after Paris, “failure of
climate-change mitigation and
adaptation” jumped back to number
two in terms of impact this year.
The results of climate inaction are
becoming increasingly clear. The
accelerating pace of biodiversity
loss is a particular concern. Species
abundance is down by 60% since
1970. In the human food chain,
biodiversity loss is affecting health
and socioeconomic development,
with implications for well-being,
productivity, and even
regional security.
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