MIKDAT KADIOGLU, ZEKAI SEN and LATIF GÜLTEKIN

Department of Meteorology, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, Istanbul 80626, Turkey

Turkish State Meteorological Works, Diyarbakir Meteorology Station, Turkey

Abstract.

The potential effect of climate change on energy demand is important especially for the developing and non-oil-producing countries. Cooling and heating degree-day (CDD and HDD) concepts are among the most significant meteorological variables related to residential energy consumption. This paper presents the spatial and temporal characteristics of Turkish seasonal CDD and HDD in the context of climate change. CDD and HDD are defined objectively by truncation of the temperature series at any constant base temperature level. This leads to surpluses and deficits as deviations. The surpluses are instances for cooling and the deficits for heating. Depending on temperature fluctuations, the degree-day statistics at any location show local and seasonal variations. In this study, regional variations of seasonal HDD and CDD are mapped for Turkey and their relations to local topography and climatic features are examined with conclusive interpretations. The sequential version of Mann–Kendall rank statistic is applied to demonstrate any existence of possible nonlinear trends in accumulated HDD and CDD over the seasons. Spatially coherent and statistically significant trends of HDD and CDD appear in some regions of Turkey. In general, the sign of the trends is inconsistent with General Circulation Models (GCM) predictions

 

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Author

Prof. Dr. Mikdat Kadioglu

Prof Dr. Mikdat Kadioglu

Education
BSc Meteorological Engineering, ITU, Turkey,1984
MSc: Atmospheric Sciences, University of Missouri-Columbia, USA, 1987
PhD: Atmospheric Sciences, University of Missouri-Columbia, USA, 1991
Brief Resume

He has 20 years experience in the filed of the Atmospheric Sciences and 10 years experience in the field of the Disaster Management. His studies concentrate mainly on disaster risk management, disaster response planning, hydro-meteorological disasters and climate change. He has involved in various projects in the fields of meteorology, climatology and disaster management. He is now a member and Chairman of Disaster Management Centre and Meteorological Engineering Department at Istanbul Technical University, Turkey. He is also advisor to Governor of Istanbul.

Selected Publications

Kadıoğlu, M., H. Erdun, N. Öztürk, and Z. Şen: On the Precipitation Climatology of Turkey by Harmonic Analysis. International Journal of Climatology, 19, 1717-1728, 1999.
Kadıoğlu, M., Z. Şen and M.L. Gültekin: Spatial Heating Monthly Degree-Day Features and Climatological Patterns in Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 64, 263-269, 1999.
Şen, Z., M. Kadıoğlu, and E. Batur: Stochastic Modelling of the Van Lake Monthly Level Fluctuations in Turkey. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 65, 99-110, 2000.
Durmayaz, A., M. Kadıoğlu and Z. Şen: An application of the Degree-Hours Method to estimate the residential heating energy requirement and fuel consumption in Istanbul. Energy-Int. Journal. 25 (12), 1245-1256, 2000.
Kadıoğlu, M.: Regional Variability of Seasonal Precipitation in Turkey. Int. Journal of Climatology, 20, 1743-1760, 2000.
Kadıoğlu, M., Şen, Z. and Gültekin, L.: Variations and trends in Turkish seasonal heating and cooling degree-days, Climatic Change, 49, 209-223, 2001.
Kadıoğlu, M. and L. Şaylan: Trend Analysis of Growing Degree-Days in Turkey. Water, Air and Soil Pollution, 126, 83-96, 2001.
Kadıoğlu, M. and Z. Şen: Monthly precipitation-runoff polygons and mean runoff coefficients. Hydrological Sciences Journal. 46 (1), 3-11, 2001.
Şahin, A.D., Kadıoğlu, M., and Şen, Z.: Monthly Clearness Index Values of Turkey Harmonic Analysis Approach. Energy Conversion and Management, 42 (8), 933-940, 2001.