TÜRKİYE’NİN İKLİMSEL DEĞİŞKENLİK VE SOSYO-EKOLOJİK GÖSTERGELER AÇISINDAN KURAKLIKTAN ETKİLENEBİLİRLİK VE RİSK ÇÖZÜMLEMESİ

TÜRKİYE’NİN İKLİMSEL DEĞİŞKENLİK VE
SOSYO-EKOLOJİK GÖSTERGELER AÇISINDAN
KURAKLIKTAN ETKİLENEBİLİRLİK VE RİSK ÇÖZÜMLEMESİ
Drought Vulnerability and Risk Analysis of Turkey with Respect to
Climatic Variability and Socio-Ecological Indicators
Murat Türkeş
Boğaziçi Üniversitesi İklim Değişikliği ve Politikaları Uygulama ve Araştırma Merkezi
murat.turkes@boun.edu.tr
(Teslim: 13 Ekim 2017; Düzeltme: 7 Kasım 2017; Kabul: 28 Kasım 2017)
(Received: October 13, 2017; Revised: November 7, 2017; Accepted: November 28, 2017)

Abstract
The main aim of the present study is to perform a vulnerability and risk analysis of Turkey along with
a scientific evaluation for the results of analysis based on the observed drought events in Turkey by
considering the recent trends and approaches on the subject for disaster risk management of the
weather and climate extremes and disasters towards the climate change adaptation and reducing its
impacts.
Economic and social loses caused by weather and climate-related extreme events and disasters have
been increasing with a great spatial and inter-annual variability in many regions of the world and in
Turkey. The character, severity and impact powers of the extreme weather and climate events and
disasters closely depend not only on exposure and vulnerability levels that are varying across temporal
and spatial scales, but also depend on economic, social, geographic, demographic, cultural,
institutional, governance, and environmental and ecological factors.
A large part of Turkey is located over the dry-summer subtropical macro climate belt characterised
with many climate and climate-related problems arising from its nature. Turkey is a mid to high
climate risk-prone country, with respect to not only present climate, climate change and variability,
but also future climate. Turkey is also one of the South-eastern Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean
countries that are considerably vulnerable to desertification processes varying mid to high degrees.
In the study, a Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) was used for determining “Turkey’s ‘Potential’
Drought Hazard/Disaster Risk.” The SVI is a tool that was originally developed and applied in the
United States to help emergency response planners and public health experts and officials
geographically identify and map the communities that will most likely need support before, during,
and after a hazardous event. The estimation for Turkey’s Vulnerability Index in terms of the impacts
of drought events was based on five vulnerability factor classes including “(i) Education statue with
one indicator”, “(ii) Demography with four indicators”, “(iii) Economic activity with six indicators

mostly related to agricultural activities and production”, “(iv) Public health and health protection statues and public coping capacities with five indicators”, and “(v) Natural environmental features with three indicators.”
In this frame, based on a well-known drought risk formula and the climatological drought occurrence probabilities estimated from the standardised precipitation index (SPI) series of Turkey, “Turkey’s Drought Hazard/Disaster ‘Potential’ Risk Modelling and Valuation” were performed and mapped on the main administrative city provinces by using the spatial analysis tools of a geographical information system (GIS).
Keywords: Climate change and variability, weather and climate extremes, disaster, exposure, vulnerability and risk analysis, disaster risk management.
Öz
Bu çalışmanın amacı, Türkiye’nin gözlenen kuraklık olaylarına dayalı etkilenebilirlik ve risk çözümlemesinin bilimsel bir değerlendirmesini yapmaktır.
Hava ve iklim ilişkili ekstrem (aşırı) olayların ve afetlerin neden olduğu sosyal ve ekonomik kayıplar, Türkiye’de ve Dünyanın birçok bölgesinde önemli bir alansal ve yıllararası değişkenlikle birlikte artmaktadır. Aşırı hava ve iklim olaylarının ve afetlerinin niteliği, şiddeti ve etkileme gücü, alansal ve zamansal ölçeklerde değişen maruz kalma (bakı) ve etkilenebilirlik düzeylerinin yanı sıra, ekonomik, sosyal, coğrafi, demografik, kültürel, kurumsal ve yönetişimsel (ör. uyum), çevresel ve ekolojik etmenlere de yakından bağlıdır.
Türkiye’nin oldukça geniş bir bölümü, yazı kurak subtropikal Akdeniz iklim kuşağında yer alır. Türkiye hem günümüz iklimi, iklim değişikliği ve değişkenliği hem de gelecek iklimi açısından orta-yüksek riskli ülkeler arasındadır. Türkiye aynı zamanda çölleşmeden etkilenebilirliği ciddi (ortadan yükseğe değişen) bir Güneydoğu Avrupa ve Doğu Akdeniz ülkesidir.
Çalışmada, Türkiye’nin ‘Potansiyel’ Kuraklık Afet ve Felaketinden Etkilenme Riskinin saptanması için, özellikle Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (ABD) gibi gelişmiş ülkelerde uygulanmakta olan bir Sosyal Etkilenebilirlik İndisi (SEİ) kullanıldı. SEİ, şiddetli afetlerde ya da afet boyutundaki olaylardan önce, sırasında ve sonrasında çoğunlukla yardıma gereksinimleri olan toplulukları coğrafi olarak tanımlayan ve haritalayan acil yardım plancıları ve halk sağlığı uzman ve görevlilerine yardım amacıyla geliştirilmiş ve uygulanmaktadır. Kuraklık olaylarının etkileri açısından Türkiye’nin Etkilenebilirlik İndisi’nin kestirimi, 5 etkilenebilirlik etmen sınıfı dikkate alınarak gerçekleştirildi. Bunlar: (i) Öğretim durumu (1 indikatör), (ii) Demografi (4 indikatör), (iii) Ekonomik etkinlik (6 indikatör), (iv) Sağlık, sağlık koruma ve baş edebilme kapasitesi (5 indikatör) ve (v) Doğal çevre özellikleri (3 indikatör).
Bu çerçevede, iyi bilinen bir kuraklık risk formülü ve Türkiye’nin standartlaştırılmış yağış indisi (SPI) dizilerinden kestirilen klimatolojik kuraklık oluşum olasılıklarına dayanarak, “Türkiye’nin Kuraklık Felaket/Afet ‘Potansiyel’ Risk Modelleme ve Değerlendirmesi’ gerçekleştirilerek, bir coğrafi bilgi sistemleri (CBS) alansal analiz olanağı kullanılarak iller için haritalandı.
Anahtar Kelimeler: İklim değişikliği ve değişkenliği, hava ve iklim ekstremleri, afet, bakı, etkilenebilirlik ve risk çözümlemesi, afet risk yönetimi.

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TÜRKİYENİN İKLİMSEL DEĞİŞİKLİK AÇISINDAN KURAKLIKTAN ETKİLENEBİLİRLİK GÖSTERGESİ

 

 


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Author

Prof .Dr. Murat Türkeş

1. Family name: Türkeş
2. First names: Murat
3. Date of birth: 23.06.1957
4. Nationality: Turkish
5. Civil status: Married
6. Education: Physical Geography and Geology (under graduate) & Climatology and Meteorology (MSc, PhD)
Institution [ Date from - Date to ] Degree(s) or Diploma(s) obtained:
İstanbul University, Institute of Marine Sciences and
Geography (1986-1990)
PhD in Climatology and Meteorology
Ankara University, Department of Physical
Geography and Geology (1983-1985)
MSc in Physical Geography (on Synoptic Climatology)
Ankara University, Department of Physical
Geography and Geology (1977-1981)
BS in Physical Geography and Geology
7. Present position:
Professor of Physical Geography and Geology & Climatology and Meteorology
Affiliated Faculty at the Department of Statistics
Middle East Technical University (METU), Ankara, Turkey
8. Previous position:
- Representative of the Professors to the Faculty Committee at the Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University
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- Full time lecturer and Professor at the Department of Geography of the Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart U niversity
- Member of the Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University University Senate (Senator) on behalf of the Faculty of Sciences and Arts,
- Member of the Scientific Research Commission of the Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University University on behalf of the Faculty of Sciences and
Arts,
- Head of the Department of Geography at the Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University, Çanakkale, Turkey.
9. Years within the institute: Nine years at the Department of Geography of the Faculty of Sciences and Arts, Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart
University, but -in the past- about 23 years for the Turkish State Meteorological Service.
10. Areas of Expertise: Physical geography and geology, climatology and meteorology; climate change and variability; statistical data and time
series analysis of climatological, meteorological, hydrological and climate-related series of observations, drought and desertification with
respect to the climate and climatic variations; forest fires climatology and meteorology; natural disasters; the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change and its Kyoto Protocol; energy policies and environmental protection; sustainable development and climate
change.
3
11. Professional experience
Date from – Date to Location Institution Position
1 March 2013 – Ankara Affiliated Faculty at the Department of
Statistics, Middle East Technical University
(METU), Ankara, Turkey
Affiliated Professor
14 May 2004 – 31 January 2013 Çanakkale Physical Geography Division, Department of
Geography, Faculty of Sciences and Arts,
Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University
- Full time lecturer and Professor
[Head of the Department
(October 2004 – February 2010)]
14 December 1981 – 11 May
2004
Ankara Turkish State Meteorological Service, (i)
Department of Weather Forecasts; (ii)
Department of Research and Data Processing
Geomorphologist and
Climatologist
12. Some Peer review journals that I have served as a referee:
- International Journal of Climatology
- Climatic Change
- Quaternary Science Reviews
- Nature
- International Journal of Global Environmental Issues
- Theoretical and Applied Climatology
- Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics
- Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica
- Global and Planetary Change
- Journal of Environmental Management
4
- Geological Bulletin of Turkey (Türkiye Jeoloji Bülteni, in Turkish)
- ISRN Meteorology
- Open Atmospheric Science Journal
- Advances in Civil Engineering
- Journal of Biology and Life Sciences (BIO)
- Journal of the Aegean Geography (Ege Coğrafya Dergisi, in Turkish)
- Journal of Ecology (Ekoloji Dergisi, in Turkish)
- Journal of Climatology
- Technical Journal of Environment, Science and Technology (Çevre, Bilim ve Teknoloji Teknik Dergi, in Turkish)
- Journal of Geographical Sciences (Coğrafi Bilimler Dergisi, in Turkish)
- Ankara University Journal of Environmental Sciences (Ankara Üniversitesi Çevre Bilimleri Dergisi, in Turkish)
- Iğdır Üniversitesi Fen Bilimleri Enstitüsü Dergisi
- Çukurova Üniversitesi Ziraat Fakültesi Dergisi
- Afyon Kocatepe Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi
- Stratejik Araştırmalar Dergisi

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