Professor Sencer Imer to Aljoumhouria:
Turkish Constitutional Reform Will Not Pass & Trump To Cooperate In Gülen Issue
Mey Alsayegh /Aljoumhouria
January 11 2017
Turkey has been passing in a very critical period ,and it is counting on the upcoming Trump administration to resume its special ties with the U.S. , that have been especially strained in the late-Obama era, as the U.S. has been reluctant to extradite U.S.-based leader Fethullah Gülen , who is accused of masterminding the failed attempt coup on July 15, and amid Washington’s backing of YPG in northern Syria.
Two problematic issues will be figured out in a different way as Trump arrives at the White House ,according to Professor Sencer Imer at Hacettepe university in Ankara, who expects that constitutional reform will not pass in the Turkish parliament and consequently , there will be no referendum.
He says:” The concentration of terrorist actions against Turkey is the last efforts carried out by groups supported by outside powers”, hinting to circles within Obama administration, who wants to “complicate issues and play their last cards before Trump is in charge” .
He adds:” Terrorist groups cannot exist without the help of the outside, to overcome terrorism threats posed by ISIS and PKK, Turkey must work inside and outside and enhance cooperation with Russia , USA , Iran and even Egypt and Israel”.
Professor Imer points out that Turkish military operation in Syria and Iraq are disturbing some changes, that has been planned in the Middle East and that will lead to fragmentation of those countries”, adding that fragmentation of the Middle East is the goal of Israel ,and expecting that central governments will be able to restore power in Syria and Iraq.
He says:”Unity of these countries will be kept ,their unity is important for Turkey and the canton story is in favor of Israel and America who are helping YPG in Northern Syria”.
Professor Imer stresses that stability in Turkey depends on keeping the balance in its relations with NATO, USA Europe and Russia. He seems very optimistic that in the coming future and due to Turkey friendship with Russia , Ankara will increase cooperation with Syrian regime and Iraq, believing that Turkey operation at Al- Bab in Syria ,and its intervention in Iraq are legitimate actions to prevent the establishment of a corridor for YPG and PKK.
He says: “we have to wait for Trump to be in White House, Trump behavior related to Syrian conflict is acceptable in terms of not wanting to change the regime and focusing instead on fighting ISIS”.
Taking into account the current indications that Russia and USA will become closer, especially after appointing the Rex W. Tillerson, the chief executive of Exxon Mobil, who has strong connection with Russia, to be his secretary of state, Professor Imer projects that this will have a positive influence on Turkey and Syria , considering his country intervention in internal affairs in Syria a mistake.
At the same time, he expects that the new American administration will be more cooperative in Gülen issue, they may not extradite him and leave the case to judicial procedures but we may witness a new bases of this problematic situation.
Regarding the American support for Kurdish fighters in Syria, Professor Imer believes that this will change and Washington will not be able to support PYD and YPG , because it contradicts the interest of Moscow.
Professor Imer does not agree that Iran is trying to sabotage the Astana talks on Syria because its interest that Assad will remain in power and Hezbollah is safe. He says :”Who is not happy now is the Americans and Russia and Turkey should wait to Trump administration who will be welcomed to contribute in these efforts to reach to a settlement for the Syrian crisis”.
Threat to secular life style
Professor Imer points out that there is a great concern that what happened at New year’s Eve is planned and very well organized , because they chose Reina guests who were from Upper class , the message in my opinion is to prevent tourists from coming to Turkey , and not to invest and nowadays we can see how the Turkish lira is deteriorating.
He adds :” ISIS is not working alone, it is a puppet, Trump in his campaign accused Clinton of creating ISIS to avoid sending American boots on the ground.
Professor Imer admits that Ak party in some aspects enhanced Islamic concepts, but in Istanbul particularly, there are secularists and religious people and Salafi movements that don’t grow alone, they are supported by the west, look at Egypt and Lebanon , you have the same issue”.
He says: “misunderstanding shouldn’t lead to fighting , and intolerance doesn’t
bring peace, we can turn the tide by having better education from elementary school and redistribution of wealth and resources”.
In parallel, Professor Imer wonders why the Turkish government is hurrying up in trails of those accused in the coup attempt ,and is skeptical of the link between trails and changing the regime from parliamentarian to presidential.
Professor Imer expects that the constitutional reform will not succeed ,and it will not pass in the parliament , concluding that Turkey will not reach to referendum, because in his opinion the voting will be secret and some AK party Mps are against this reform.
AUTHOR : Mey Al Sayegh / Aljoumhouria