Detecting seasonal cycle shift on streamflow over Turkey by using multivariate statistical methods

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Theoretical and Applied Climatology

pp 1–19 | Cite as

Detecting seasonal cycle shift on streamflow over Turkey by using multivariate statistical methods

  • Dogan YildizEmail author
  • Mehmet Samil Gunes
  • Fulya Gokalp Yavuz
  • Dursun Yildiz

Original Paper

First Online: 19 August 2017

Received: 08 March 2016

Accepted: 01 August 2017

Abstract

Climate change analysis includes the study of several types of variables such as temperature, precipitation, carbon emission, and streamflow. In this study, we focus on basin hydrology and, in particular, on streamflow values. They are geographic and climatologic indicators utilized in the study of basins. We analyze these values to better understand monthly and seasonal change over a 40-year period for all basins in Turkey. Our study differs from others by applying multivariate analysis into the streamflow data implementations rather than on trend, frequency, and/or distribution-based analysis. The characteristics of basins and climate change effects are visualized and examined with monthly data by using cluster analysis, multidimensional scaling, and gCLUTO (graphical Clustering Toolkit). As a result, we classify months as low-flow and high-flow periods. Multidimensional scaling proves that there is a clockwise movement of months from one decade to the next, which is the indicator of seasonal shift. Finally, the gCLUTO tool is utilized in a novel way in the hydrology field by revealing the seasonal change and visualizing the current changing structure of streamflow.


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Author

Yrd.Doç. Dr. Doğan Yıldız

Assoc. Prof. Dr. Doğan YILDIZ
He was graduated from the Department of Econometrics in the Faculty of Economy of Istanbul University in 1984. He completed his graduate and doctorate education in Economics and Statistics Programs of Social Sciences Institute of Istanbul University, respectively. Between 1986 and 1995, he, initially, worked as research assistant and later as assistant prof. dr. in Operations Research Program of the Department of Econometrics in the Faculty of Economics of Istanbul University. Since, September 2001, he has been working as faculty member and deputy head of the Department of Statistics in the Faculty of Sciences and Literature of Yildiz Technical University. His lectures are on probability and statistics, Statistical Packageprograms, Multivarate Statistics and Marketing Researach regression analysis, and operations research. His interests are on Appied Multivarate Statistical analysis and Statistics Education.