Dogan YILDIZ,1 Dursun YILDIZ2 & Mehmet Samil GUNES3
1Department of Statistics, Yildiz Technical University, Davutpasa, 34220, Istanbul, Turkey
2Director of Hydro politics Association, Kavaklidere, Ankara, Turkey
3Researcher in Applied Research Center of Hydro politics Association, Kavaklidere, Ankara, Turkey
The Tigres River is a transboundary river that plays very important role on security, peace and stability in the Middle East. This paper presents trends computed for the forty-year period of yearly streamﬂows obtained from Upper Tigris Basin in Turkey. Because of the review of major trend studies for this region and the fact of streamﬂow being a privileged variable, a streamﬂow trend analysis study in the Euphrates and Tigris River seemed to be an important necessity. Simple linear regression model is adopted in this study. This paper mainly focuses on naturally changing trend in long term Tigris streamflows. Long term streamflow data obtained from the flow measurement stations located on the Tigris River. Measured data had some regulation effects of dams and irrigation projects were developed during some part of the measurements period.
Therefore it is needed to find the most suitable sub basins with longest and most natural flow data of the Upper Tigris River Basin. These data from the sub basins were used to obtain natural trend of long term upper Tigris River flows. Best suited one with the main upper Tigris streamflows trend was choosen to be used to predict the rest of the natural streamflow trend of the upper Tigris River. Mean annual flow data was obtained measured monthly data were used in statistical regression and Taylor diagram. We observed that natural factors are effective on declining trend of the mean annual natural flow of the Upper Tigris River. This key finding can be taken as a vital invitation to establish a immidiate collaboration between riparian states. Keywords: Upper Tigris River, Flow Trend Prediction, Middle East Water, Taylor Diagram Introduction The Tigris is a transboundary river and of critical importance for water, food and energy security in the region. Therefore this river increasingly plays very important role on security architecture, peace
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